May 6, 2013
James
Hurley
Greece's
crisis-hit economy is finally beginning to heal, according to the country's
finance minister before a crucial report by the International Monetary Fund
that is likely to be more positive than in the past.
Yannis
Stournaras said ''the worst is over'' and the country had ''reached the [bottom
of the] trough''.
Mr
Stournaras's upbeat tone comes before the IMF's health check on the Greek
economy, which is expected to indicate that the country is turning the corner.
The IMF is expected to deliver its annual Article IV Consultation on the
country on Monday, which will give its verdict on whether the economic outlook
is improving after six years of deep recession.
The IMF has
praised improvements to Greece's much-maligned tax collection procedures,
according to reports in the Greek media at the weekend.
Mr
Stournaras said attempts to fix the country's parlous public finances are
starting to bear fruit, and could allow it to return to financial markets as
early as next year.
Athens is
on course to deliver a primary budget surplus - which does not take into
account debt payments - a year ahead of schedule. He added the country had
already pushed through two-thirds of the reform measures needed to address the
huge holes in the nation's budget. Interest costs on Greece's massive debt have
been sharply reduced by the debt restructuring the government has made.
In
interviews with Greek newspapers at the weekend, Mr Stournaras said Greece
could return to international debt markets by next May.
This would
reduce the country's reliance on its latest bail-out from its troika of
lenders, the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.
''Whether
Greece is able to take the first step of independence from the troika will
depend on all that has to happen by then,'' Mr Stournaras told Greece's To Vima
newspaper. ''In May 2014, the loan instalments will come to an end and the
country has to be in a position where it can go on its own to the markets.''
He told
Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that there were indications that the
worst is over. ''For instance, the central bank of Greece told me industrial
production is stabilising. Production isn't falling any more and we appear to
have reached the trough.''
He said
there was still a pressing need to address imbalances between richer northern
countries and indebted southern states that the eurozone has created. ''We need
to find a way that countries which benefit from the effects of the eurozone
crisis can share those profits with the other countries,'' Mr Stournaras said.
''We have
to remember that in a system of fixed exchange rates, the result of deflation
or austerity is always a recession in all countries.''
On Sunday,
the president of the European Commission defended German Chancellor Angela
Merkel against criticism that she is to blame for harsh austerity measures
implemented across Europe.
Jose Manuel
Barroso said: ''This crisis and the problems that go with it are not the result
of German policies or the fault of the European Union. They are the result of
excessive spending policies, of lack of competitiveness and irresponsible
action by the financial markets.''
Any Greek
recovery is likely to be slow. Unemployment is at 27 per cent, while Greece has
debts of more than 150 per cent of GDP. The European Commission has forecast
shrinkage in its economy of 4.2 per cent this year.
Telegraph,
London
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